Build a Screener: Find Trucking Stocks Likely to Benefit from Structural Cost Cuts

Stop guessing which trucking stocks will actually keep margins when volumes slip

Investors and traders in 2026 face a familiar but tougher problem: freight volumes remain cyclical, news flow is noisy, and a single rebound in demand can hide companies that simply trade on freight tails rather than real structural improvement. If your portfolio depends on carriers that can turn cost programs into permanently higher operating margins, you need a repeatable, data-driven screener — not intuition.

Why focus on cost-elimination programs in 2026?

By late 2025 and into early 2026 the industry shifted: carriers that announced structural cost cuts — not one-off furloughs or temporary wage deferrals — were the ones showing durable margin expansion amid choppy volumes. J.B. Hunt’s Q4 2025 results are a case in point: revenue fell slightly y/y but operating income rose because management executed a multi-year cost-elimination program that management says is structural and unlikely to reappear as volumes recover. That pattern matters now because macro volatility remains high and investors prize profits that do not evaporate when freight softens.

What investors care about

• Real, recurring margin expansion (not transitory gains)
• Evidence management is eliminating structural cost — layoffs are less valuable than system/process/capex-based savings
• Stable or diversified customer bases — low single-customer risk
• Clear earnings momentum and analyst revision trends

Ready-to-use screener logic: high-level overview

Below is a practical, implementable screening framework. Use it with any dataset that provides standard financial statements, press-release/filings text, and analyst/consensus metrics. I give both rule-based filters and a scoring model so you can rank carriers and generate alerts.

Core thesis encoded into filters

1. Structural cost-cut program flag: company explicitly reports a cost-elimination program classified as structural or permanent in filings, earnings releases, or conference calls in the past 18 months.
2. Operating margin improvement: Trailing twelve months (TTM) operating margin improved by at least +150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) versus the prior-year TTM.
3. Margin momentum: Last two consecutive quarters show positive YoY operating margin change, or QoQ operating margin improvement in at least 3 of the last 4 quarters.
4. Free cash flow (FCF) conversion: FCF margin (FCF / revenue) is positive and improved YoY, or FCF conversion (FCF / net income) > 60% for the last 12 months.
5. Capex discipline: Capex / revenue ratio stable or declining YoY (indicating productivity not just higher spend).
6. Customer concentration: Top-1 customer < 20% of revenue and top-5 customers < 45% (or a stable trend showing no material increase in concentration over 2 years).
7. Earnings momentum: Historical EPS beats in at least 2 of last 4 quarters and consensus EPS revisions have trended upward over the last 60 days.
8. Market-share signal: Revenue or segment tonnage growth at or above peer-median during the last 12 months, OR management commentary indicating selective share gains.
9. Risk filters: Exclude carriers with unresolved material litigation, sustained negative operating cash flow for 3+ years, or dividend suspension that signals balance-sheet distress.

Field definitions and typical data sources

To implement the screener you need consistent definitions. Here are the fields, how to calculate them, and where to pull them from:

• Operating Margin (TTM) = Operating Income (TTM) / Revenue (TTM). Source: company 10-Q/10-K, financial data APIs (Refinitiv, FactSet, S&P Capital IQ, Yahoo/AlphaVantage for basic).
• QoQ & YoY margin change = compare last quarter and last four quarters vs same periods prior year. Source: quarterly filings.
• FCF Margin = Free Cash Flow / Revenue (TTM). FCF = Cash from Operations – Capex. Source: cash flow statement.
• Capex / Revenue = Capital Expenditures (TTM) / Revenue (TTM).
• Cost-elimination program flag = text-mined boolean from earnings release/transcript mentioning “cost elimination”, “structural cost”, “permanent savings”, or quantified programs (e.g., “$100 million cost program”). Source: earnings call transcripts, press releases, filings.
• Customer concentration = percent of revenue attributable to top customers. Look for “Top 10 customers represented X%” disclosures in 10-K/10-Q; else use segment notes or compute proxies using customer disclosures and industry reporting.
• EPS beats = count of quarters where reported EPS > consensus. Source: earnings history from data vendors.
• Consensus EPS revisions = 30/60/90 day change in mean analyst EPS estimate. Source: broker/IBES datasets or public APIs.
• Market-share proxy = revenue growth vs industry growth or segment shipment/tonnage data. Source: industry reports, company KPI tables (many carriers report truckload volumes, intermodal tons, or similar).

Concrete SQL/Pseudo-code screener (example)

SELECT ticker
FROM carriers
WHERE
  cost_program_flag = TRUE
  AND (op_margin_ttm - op_margin_prior_ttm) >= 0.015
  AND ((op_margin_q4 - op_margin_q4_prior) > 0 OR (quarterly_margin_improve_count >= 3))
  AND fcf_margin_ttm > 0
  AND fcf_margin_ttm - fcf_margin_prior_ttm > 0
  AND capex_rev_ttm <= capex_rev_prior_ttm
  AND top1_customer_pct < 0.20
  AND top5_customer_pct < 0.45
  AND eps_beats_last4 >= 2
  AND eps_est_revision_60d > 0
  AND NOT unresolved_litigation_flag
ORDER BY score DESC;

Scoring model (0-100)

Assign weighted points to rank candidates. Example weights:

• Cost-elimination program (explicit & quantified): 20 pts
• Operating margin improvement >150 bps: 20 pts
• Margin momentum (QoQ or consecutive quarters): 15 pts
• FCF margin positive & improving: 12 pts
• Customer concentration acceptable: 10 pts
• EPS beats & analyst revisions: 10 pts
• Market-share signal: 8 pts
• Capex discipline: 5 pts

Score threshold: focus on carriers scoring 65+ for initial coverage; 80+ for high-conviction ideas.

Case study: J.B. Hunt (what the screener would catch)

J.B. Hunt’s Q4 2025 release illustrates the type of carrier this screen is designed to find. Management reported an explicit structural cost program (initially $100M) and said the savings are permanent rather than temporary. Revenue was slightly down y/y, but adjusted operating income rose ~11% and EPS beat consensus. Under the rules above, JBHT scores highly: cost program flag = TRUE, operating margin has improved, management commentary confirms structural savings, and the company reported earnings momentum — a classic positive signal.

“Our team finished the year with another quarter of strong execution and financial results,” said President and CEO Shelley Simpson, highlighting operational excellence as a differentiator.

Practical tips for implementation and monitoring

Here are pragmatic steps and best practices so your screener produces tradable insights, not false positives.

1) Distinguish structural from cyclical cost cuts

• Structural: process automation, network optimization, permanent headcount reductions tied to digitalization, fleet mix changes, renegotiated contracts.
• Cyclical: temporary layoffs, furloughs, cutbacks that are reversed when volumes rebound.
• How to detect: search for words like “structural,” “permanent,” “ongoing productivity,” or quantified multi-year targets in transcripts/10-Ks. Manuals/crew reductions without process change = red flag.

2) Use both quantitative and qualitative signals

Numbers matter — but so does management credibility. Pair text-mined evidence of a program with a multi-quarter margin trend and consistent FCF improvement. If a carrier claims a $100M program but margins revert when volumes change, downgrade conviction.

3) Watch customer concentration carefully

A carrier can improve margins but become more exposed to a single winner customer. Use the following guardrails:

• Top-1 customer < 20% of revenue — good.
• Top-5 customers < 45% — desirable.
• If concentration is higher, require stronger margin improvement and evidence that relationships are contractually sticky (multi-year contracts, captive fleets).

4) Calibrate for cyclicality

Trucking is cyclical. When freight tightens, most carriers show higher margins. Your screen must reward structural improvement (persisting through downlegs) more than temporary uplift. Backtest on at least one full freight cycle — compare candidates’ margins during a downturn to see who held gains.

5) Build alerts, not a one-off list

Set automated alerts for:

• New cost-program announcements (text-mined)
• Quarterly margin reversals greater than 100 bps
• Major changes in customer concentration disclosures
• Significant analyst estimate revisions or guidance cuts

Backtesting and validation

Before you allocate capital, validate your screener historically:

1. Create an historical universe of public carriers for 2015–2025.
2. Mark dates when companies announced cost programs and track operating margin and FCF for 12–24 months after the announcement.
3. Measure alpha: compare a portfolio of screened names versus a freight index or large-cap transport benchmark on a 6–24 month horizon.
4. Adjust thresholds based on false positives: e.g., raise margin-improvement hurdle if too many names revert.

Advanced filters and enhancements

Want to go deeper? Add these layers:

• Unit economics: metrics such as revenue per tractor, load per day, or revenue per equivalent truck — if disclosed — can flag productivity improvements.
• Driver cost per mile: stabilization or decline suggests structural labor productivity gains (or favorable contracts).
• Digital adoption score: vendors/analysts often rate carriers on digital freight-matching and route optimization adoption; higher adoption supports structural savings.
• Fleet age & fuel efficiency: younger, more fuel-efficient fleets can sustain lower operating costs.
• Contract mix: percent of revenue under dedicated/contracted business vs spot freight — higher contracted mix often means more predictable revenue and margin protection.

How to turn screen results into trades

Use the screen as your research queue, not as an automatic buy signal. Here’s a process that balances conviction and risk:

1. Run the screener monthly; shortlist 5–10 names above your score threshold.
2. Perform quick qualitative checks: read the last two quarter calls, confirm program quantification, and review customer-risk disclosures.
3. Check liquidity and position sizing rules. For small-cap carriers, limit allocation to avoid market-impact risk.
4. Stagger entries and set PO/PS (partial order/scale-in) — buy 50% at initial entry and the rest if margins continue to improve or the stock dips on non-fundamental news.
5. Use trailing stop or stop-loss keyed to operating margin deterioration (not price alone) — e.g., exit if operating margin falls 100–150 bps y/y and management offers no credible remediation plan.

Common pitfalls and how to avoid them

• Equating any cost-cut with structural improvement: not all cost saves stick. Require multi-quarter confirmation.
• Ignoring customer risk: a single large retail contract can boost volumes but creates concentration risk.
• Overweighting near-term cyclical gains: when freight tightens broadly, many carriers improve margins; your screen must find those that keep gains in a softer environment.
• Relying solely on company language: management PR can exaggerate permanence. Cross-check with cash flow and productivity metrics.

2026 trends that should shape your parameters

As of early 2026, calibrate your screen to reflect industry shifts:

• Digital productivity: carriers investing in automation and route optimization have delivered measurable structural savings in 2025 — give extra weight to carriers with proven digital KPIs.
• Energy & fuel stabilization: with fuel price volatility moderating in late 2025, carriers focused on fleet efficiency rather than temporary fuel surcharges tended to deliver cleaner margin improvements.
• Contract vs spot mix shifts: customers increasingly prefer contracted capacity after recent supply shocks — carriers that diversified into more contracted/dedicated business saw steadier margins.
• Labor & driver dynamics: driver wage inflation has moderated, but structural labor solutions (telematics, platooning pilots) are starting to show benefits — favor carriers investing in high-return automation.

Actionable takeaways

• Build a screener that combines a text-mined cost-program flag with multi-quarter operating margin, FCF improvement, and customer concentration filters.
• Score and rank carriers; focus attention on names scoring above 65 for research and 80 for high-conviction allocations.
• Validate historically to avoid cyclicality traps: test screened names across freight up and down cycles.
• Set automated alerts for new program announcements, margin reversals >100 bps, and concentration shifts in filings.

Final checklist before you trade

1. Confirm cost program is quantified and management labels it structural.
2. Verify operating margin improvement persists for at least two quarters.
3. Check FCF improvement and capex discipline.
4. Ensure customer concentration levels are acceptable or improving.
5. Cross-check analyst revisions and recent EPS beats.

Call to action

If you want a jumpstart, use our downloadable screener template (pre-mapped fields for common data vendors) and the scoring sheet used by our research team — sign up at shareprice.info to get the template and a 30-day trial of our trucking-screen alerts. Turn noisy freight data into a reliable queue of carriers with durable margin improvement — and start monitoring them with alerts that matter.

Ready to test the screener? Sign up, load your API keys, and run the sample universe we use in our backtest so you can see how the logic performs across actual carrier cycles.

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